There will likely be an election in the near future. Both the Liberals and Conservatives are tied in the polls, meaning that either of the two parties have a strong chance of forming government. As an initial supporter of the Conservative government led by Stephen Harper, I now have some doubts. Many conservatives were disenchanted with the massive deficit announced this winter, meaning that some will stay home and not vote. Ontario is in the midst of the worst recession in generations, and have seen little help from the Harper government. The Liberals are resurgent in Quebec and he Conservatives many loose most of their seats in the province at the next election.
The liberals therefore have a fighting chance. With just a handful of seats in the western provinces, there is considerable room for improvement. They can easily double there seat count in the west. If the Liberals gain 20-30 seats in Ontario, not difficult if they retake Nothern Ontario and many of the economically devastated southern Ontario ridings. Opinion polls indicate that Ignatieff is very popular in Quebec and the Liberals formed a considerable lead in support in Montreal. Just by analyzing the polls, it seems likely that the Liberals have a strong chance of forming a minority government.
the liberals should come out with a bold platform, pledging to cut the deficit in half would be a good start. Also, I recall Ignatieff talking about an infrastructure/building program to mark Canada’s 150th Birthday, similar to the Centennial celebrations of 1967. He should expand on that. Also, this could be a bit extreme, but the Liberals should announce their intention to study the plausibility of bringing Quebec into the constitution. With a federalist government in Quebec and an increasingly less sovereigntist Parti Quebecois, this could be plausible. No firm commitment, just the expression that it is their desire to do it (some one has to say it first). I remember Ignatieff talking about how he wants Quebec to take centre-stage in national affairs, by signalling his intention to reopen the constitution, the people of Quebec may take him seriously.
My advice to the Conservatives: begin a debate about policy, not attack ads, before the Liberals claim all the bold popular ideas for themselves.
